Recent estimates of alcohol specific deaths support alcohol minimum unit pricing

Critics of alcohol minimum unit pricing (MUP) emphasise the overall increase in alcohol related deaths in Scotland since the policy was introduced.1

The final evaluation report on MUP in Scotland concluded that the policy had a positive effect on population level health outcomes and alcohol related health inequalities.2 The most robust population level evidence, based on data up to the end of 2020 and using England as a geographical control, estimates that approximately 150 alcohol specific deaths were prevented each year owing to MUP.3 The greatest estimated reductions in alcohol specific deaths were found for males (aged 16 and over) and those living in Scotland’s most deprived areas.

Relative changes in alcohol specific death rates between Scotland and England can give an indication of how more recent estimates could affect the concluded population health benefits of MUP.45 Before the implementation of MUP in 2018, alcohol specific death rates in both countries were generally stable from 2012 to 2017. After implementation of MUP, the rate of alcohol specific deaths dropped sharply in Scotland but did not change in England. Since 2019, alcohol specific death rates have risen across the UK but at a slower rate in Scotland than in England—rates were 65% higher in Scotland than England in 2020, and 60% higher in 2021. In 2022, the latest year for which comparative data are available, alcohol specific death rates were 58% higher in Scotland than England, indicating that MUP has had a positive effect in protecting the Scottish population from further alcohol related harm.

Recent estimates of alcohol specific deaths in Scotland and England, for 2021 and 2022, do not alter the conclusion of the final evaluation report: they help to reinforce it. As Public Health Scotland is committed to evidence informed policy, we support that members of Scottish parliament vote to continue MUP beyond April 2024 and to ensure that the future value of MUP is set at a level that retains its positive contribution to reducing health harms from alcohol.